CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-01-22T10:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-01-22T10:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28689/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Wide CME with distinctive bright core (likely h-alpha emission) seen to the S/SE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and after a data gap in STEREO A COR2 imagery. This CME is associated with a large filament eruption stretching from ~S45E10 to ~S20W20, centered around S35W10. The source eruption is best seen in SDO/AIA 304 starting around 2024-01-22T08:30Z. Associated dimming (SDO/AIA 193), brightening (SDO/AIA 304), and post-eruptive arcades (SDO/AIA 193, 171, and 211) are visible. The filament appears to deflect southward as it erupts. Possible arrival signature: a change in the solar wind pattern, with B total sharply increasing from under 3 nT to over 6nT, followed by another jump to just above 10nT around 14Z. There is also rotation of two magnetic field components, that after 14Z potentially resembles signature of a glancing blow/arrival of a flux rope.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-25T05:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-24T23:40Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Prediction Method: sunRunner1D
Prediction Method Note:
Using a recurrence approach to set the ambient upwind solar wind values. Ad hoc at the moment, but values numerically iterated on: V_amb: 336.0771 n_amb: 4.024259 Bp_amb: 3.57386 T_amb: 28368.85 Likely values based on approximate CR-look-back: V_amb: 300 - 400 n_amb: 2- 5 Btot_amb: 4 T_amb: 2-5E4Lead Time: 58.33 hour(s)
Difference: 5.92 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Pete Riley (PSI) on 2024-01-22T19:15Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement